The fixed income market might finally be approaching the late stages of its unprecedented bull market run. The 10-year Treasury rate, which peaked at just over 15% in late 1981, now sits at under 2%, helping to fuel returns far above what would be expected long term from investment grade fixed income securities.
The Fed, however, has indicated that it's preparing to reverse course on interest rates. The FOMC raised interest for the first time in nearly a decade last December and may be prepared to do so again before the end of the year. While the process for raising rates will likely be slow and deliberate moving forward, the inevitable truth remains that interest rates can't stay as low as they are forever. When interest rates start rising, bond prices start falling.
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